Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 9.407816 10.806690 12.313175 14.052626 16.002007 18.115530 20.576590
2025-11-30 7.388341 9.289450 11.496354 14.232941 17.519476 21.322907 26.039884
2025-12-07 6.458143 8.603077 11.214181 14.598950 18.839639 23.943760 30.514900
2025-12-14 5.502066 7.737033 10.580483 14.419591 19.417423 25.647948 33.939231
2025-12-21 4.603900 6.804421 9.719127 13.801687 19.301305 26.373377 36.061070
2025-12-28 4.222310 6.511805 9.649920 14.183280 20.466507 28.755697 40.383070
2026-01-04 3.863039 6.201455 9.510964 14.430913 21.430868 30.883874 44.431822
2026-01-11 3.454028 5.769718 9.152192 14.323405 21.869962 32.292767 47.540741
2026-01-18 3.094186 5.370915 8.798835 14.181133 22.226332 33.574610 50.497702
2026-01-25 2.817537 5.071255 8.562500 14.182093 22.770315 35.121547 53.865637
2026-02-01 2.599741 4.842834 8.412132 14.292483 23.466352 36.898139 57.612833
2026-02-08 2.366255 4.563508 8.155375 14.211690 23.854977 38.225217 60.739674
2026-02-15 2.138283 4.275285 7.867366 14.069878 24.153710 39.451473 63.803733
2026-02-22 1.978296 4.091273 7.736348 14.170402 24.832704 41.274444 67.829565
2026-03-01 1.884869 4.018160 7.784663 14.564293 25.990711 43.865529 73.103439
2026-03-08 1.706952 3.767263 7.502134 14.374911 26.180199 44.946347 76.078236
2026-03-15 1.486437 3.409186 6.997543 13.762265 25.624254 44.810651 77.126929
2026-03-22 1.424603 3.361662 7.054935 14.141594 26.755961 47.417109 82.600400
2026-03-29 1.350138 3.280223 7.041442 14.389074 27.667634 49.693013 87.613162
2026-04-05 1.238853 3.109040 6.842658 14.281667 27.950087 50.936178 90.984544
2026-04-12 1.133980 2.940135 6.634099 14.139816 28.158685 52.055479 94.179733
2026-04-19 1.053611 2.817030 6.506279 14.140752 28.618609 53.608471 98.135891
2026-04-26 0.990683 2.727062 6.438224 14.250870 29.278378 55.520369 102.747196